May 20, 2026
BroadPeak Partners (BroadPeak), a data and intelligence solution provider for energy and commodity trading firms, has published findings analysing live market sentiment captured at Commodity Trading Week Europe 2026 in London, and how the markets actually moved following a major geopolitical shift mid-event.
At the event, BroadPeak invited energy and commodity trading professionals to predict the closing price of five major European markets on 7 May 2026: Brent crude oil, Dutch TTF natural gas, EU carbon allowances (EUA), German power baseload, and EU gas storage levels.
The poll took place on 6 May, the same day reports emerged that Washington and Tehran were close to a preliminary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. By market close on 7 May, Brent crude had fallen from $114/bbl to $100.06/bbl, while TTF natural gas dropped more than 8% in a single session.
The findings provide a snapshot of how active market participants interpreted rapidly changing geopolitical and structural market conditions in real time.
Key findings
- 55% of delegates expected Brent crude to close above $106/bbl. It closed at $100.06, the least-expected outcome at the start of the event.
- Dutch TTF natural gas was the most accurately called market, with the majority correctly predicting the €38–€45/MWh range.
- German power baseload produced the strongest consensus, with 60% correctly predicting the settlement range.
- EU gas storage levels were underestimated, with only 30% selecting the range where it actually landed.
“When markets move double digits within a single session, delays in position visibility and reconciliation become a real operational problem. Firms that can capture and monitor trading activity in real time are simply better positioned to manage volatility. This is what BroadPeak helps its clients address.” Toby Kearn, CEO, BroadPeak.
About BroadPeak
BroadPeak provides data and intelligence solutions for energy and commodity trading firms, seamlessly connecting trade capture, compliance, risk, valuation, and market-facing systems. With real-time access to exchange data, automated regulatory reporting, and comprehensive position monitoring, BroadPeak enables firms to trade with confidence. With certified connections to over 30 major exchanges worldwide, BroadPeak helps you make faster decisions and stay compliant. Trading, risk, and compliance teams use BroadPeak to eliminate manual data work, reduce errors, and focus on what matters most, profitable trading.
